Schizophrenia market to reach $17b in 2031

It is largely driven by the anticipated launch of 11 late-stage pipeline products.

The schizophrenia market across the seven major markets (7MM) is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4%, from $8.4b in 2021 to $17b in 2031, according to a new report from GlobalData.

This growth is largely driven by the anticipated launch of 11 late-stage pipeline products.

Christie Wong, managing neurology analyst at GlobalData, said these pipeline therapies are expected to capture 33.4% of the market share in 2031, though atypical antipsychotics will still maintain the largest patient share.

Despite higher annual costs of therapy (ACOT) compared to generic antipsychotics, these new drugs are expected to be used as adjunctive therapies rather than replacing current first-line treatments.

The pipeline includes four key adjunctive agents, namely evenamide (Newron Pharmaceuticals), Ingrezza (Neurocrine Biosciences), iclepertin (Boehringer Ingelheim), and Cobenfy (Bristol Myers Squibb), the latter of which recently received FDA approval in September 2024.

GlobalData also forecasts Cobenfy to become the top-selling drug in the schizophrenia market by 2031, with projected sales of $2.2b.

However, Wong said the market may face challenges, particularly with the upcoming patent expirations of long-acting injectables (LAIs) such as Abilify Maintena, Aristada, and Invega Sustenna.

She added generic competition from these products is expected to slow overall market growth, though new pipeline therapies will help counterbalance this impact.