Five-year health plans no longer work, UNSW fellow warns

Davidson warns health systems to brace for pandemics supply chain risk and workforce strain simultaneously.

Healthcare organisations must stop relying on fixed five-year plans and build systems that can adapt to workforce shortages, supply chain disruption and future pandemic threats.

In an interview during the Asia Summit on Global Health 2026, Patricia Davidson, Vice Chancellor’s Distinguished Fellow and Co-Director of the International Centre for Future Health Systems at the University of New South Wales, said the sector can no longer plan as if conditions will remain stable. “The days of developing a five year strategic plan with key milestones have gone,” Davidson said.

Healthcare providers face long-running pressure from ageing populations, tighter financial resources and climate instability. These are now being compounded by geopolitical instability, supply chain disruption and the threat of future pandemics.

Davidson said organisations should use their mission and purpose to guide decisions when conditions shift. The pandemic also showed the need to build sovereign supply chain capacity and provide clearer leadership for staff, patients and families. “Instability is here,” she said.

Hong Kong could play a stronger regional role because of its regulatory clarity, English-speaking operating base and links to mainland China, Australia and the wider Indo-Pacific region. Davidson said these strengths could support innovation and cross-border healthcare collaboration.

Pandemic preparedness must become part of routine health system planning. Davidson said supply chains, surge capacity and workforce resilience must be strengthened before the next outbreak. “If you speak to most infectious disease epidemiologists, they will tell you it's not if, but when we will face the next pandemic,” she said.

Workforce retention remains one of the most urgent risks. Hong Kong faces a nursing vacancy rate of roughly 10% and persistent doctor shortages, the transcript noted. Davidson said overseas hiring is not sustainable on its own.

She said health systems should review registration and licensing rules, whilst improving workplace flexibility and reducing stress. “It's not always about the money,” Davidson said. Workers also need enough time and resources to deliver the care patients deserve.