China medical device market grows at 8.1% CAGR through 2029

High costs remain a challenge despite expanding digital adoption.

Mainland China’s medical device market will persist its strong momentum globally for the next five years at 8.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in $43.1b by 2029 due to steady growth and easing trade tensions, according to Fitch Solutions.

In a new analysis, the company said that the reduction of US tariff rates to 47% will support pricing stability and export planning over the near term, despite ongoing tariffs on select products, syringes and needles and surgical instruments.

As of 2024, China supplies 9.7% of the US’s total medical device imports, compared with the UK’s 1.8%.

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will prioritise advancements in imaging, surgical robotics, and AI-powered diagnostic systems, emphasising integrated R&D and clinical pathways, faster regulatory reviews, and expanded reimbursement to expedite the innovation, approval, and adoption of medical devices, enabling companies to become globally competitive with an annual output exceeding $1.4b (CNY10b)

The Made in China 2025 programme provided mixed results as CT scanner penetration reached 37% in 2022 despite localisation of medical imaging equipment reaching only 26% by 2024, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report said.

The discrepancy is due to the dominance of foreign suppliers in high-end components such as x-ray detectors and tubes.

“We expect this push will focus on imaging and diagnostic platforms, where dependency remains highest, supported by fiscal measures, such as tax incentives, and supply chain reforms, such as localisation requirements in procurement tenders, aimed at reducing reliance on imported technologies,” Fitch Solution said.

From 2026, volume-based procurement will shift towards a best-value model, where product type and technical complexity is prioritised over lowest prices.

The approach will target products such as electrophysiology catheters, neurointerventional and peripheral devices and immunoassays within in-vitro diagnostics, alongside renewed rounds for dental implants. Pilot programmes for these showed 30% to 50% price reduction.

Firms with varied technologies and strong compliance will compete in growth categories, failure to meet localisation and quality requirements could mean exclusion, despite the country's expanding market.