VPD outbreak risks loom as coverage falls below 85%: report

A vaccine-preventable disease outbreak may be caused by routine immunisation gaps, donor fatigue, and complex programmes.

Coverage rates for key vaccines dropping below 85% to 90% may cause a rise in vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) outbreaks in 2026, BMI said.

The FitchSolutions company described this as an “underappreciated” risk amongst other health risks that may occur within the next 12 months.

The VPD outbreak may be caused by persistent gaps in routine immunisation, donor fatigue and increasing programme complexity, it said.

Global coverage for core childhood vaccines, including diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (DTP), remains below pre-Covid levels.

Coverage rates for vaccines like DTP, MCV1 (measles) and POL3 (polio) are key indicators of immunisation system strength and population protection, with coverage of over 85% to 95%  generally considered optimal.

The number of ‘zero dose’ children, meaning those who have not received any basic childhood vaccine, has climbed to 14.3 million, 1.4 million more than before the pandemic, BMI said.

The VPD outbreak risks are especially acute in West, Central and Eastern Africa, it added, where immunisation rates continue to lag significantly, and large populations remain exposed to potential outbreaks.